The Hancock-Henderson Quill, Inc.
Greetings to ever one in Western Illinois and all readers of The Quill.
The weatherman at the time of this writ'n is predict'n cooler weather ahead. Won't that be great and what affect will that have on our grow'n crops? Good, bad, or indifferent? We'll wait ta see first of all if'n he's correct and secondly what the affect will be.
Drive'n Prices Down
There are a lot of folk talking a big crop for this year. They've done it ta the point of beat'n crop prices below the cost of production. Corn fer both old and new crop is below $4 per bushel.
Some fellers believe corn will go down ta $3.30 to $3.20 per bushel and below. Soybean prices is a fall'n faster than a toad snaps a fly. But, farmers and other forecasters keep hammer'n away that this is the best crop they've seen. No need ta bid up fer it!?
One old time feller, Cornelius Farkwad, called it a "lotta' baloney", all this talk of a big crop fer "it won't even make good silage at this stage of growth. To early ta tell fer sure, even tho the maken's fer it is there. Never mind field differences of fertility, hybrid selection, tillage, and timelines, etc. The green color seems ta indicate big yields."
Now, maybe it will be a good crop and maybe it won't. The government reports are no longer serving as an accurate forecaster of supposed fact and truth but have become an intentional negative influence on the markets. And fer now, the government wants cheap corn. Their phony reports indicate that fact at this time they seem ta predict exactly how the weather and all other factors will turn out. The farmer helps them drive down the prices by bragg'n on how big it seems ta be, even though he doesn't know fer sure either."
Last Years Miss
"Last year there was predictions fer much lower crop yields because of dry weather. A good many farmers were say'n so, even after they cranked up their combines. And then, what does ya know, after they finished harvest'n any particular field and after they added up their scale tickets, they had a bumper crop. Surprise and wonderment prevailed!"
This Years Folly
"Now, if'n them fellers can miss the mark so very far last year, why does they, this year, figure they's gotten so very good at it now?" The best Ole Tom Jones can come up with in speculat'n intentions is that "the farmer really seems ta want to beat the prices down, with all of his brag'n ta the public air waves and so on and so forth."
"Well", Buster Jigs figures, "Most of them fellers is "Republican" and they is just a try'n ta cheat Obama out of his fair share of Income Taxes and "Income redistribution." Well, Sandy Bob sez, "That don't make any sense, fer nobody is that strong in their convictions and political persuasion ta the point of shoot'n themselves in the foot."
"Well," sez Utah Carol, "if'n the government is sincere in their income redistribution; on intentions those optimistic crop reports is a help'n their cause. The farmer gets less fer his crop and Tyson, the grocery manufacturers, and others that contributed large sums of money fer political PAC's etc, ta reelect the president, gets more of the profit, which was at one time the farmers share. The value of the crop, as far as nutrients and so forth is concerned is still there, it just transfers a bigger share of that value ta the end uses."
"But wait a minute," Buster Jigs sez, "The farmer today ain't that dumb and besides some of them is Democrats anyways. They actually seems ta enjoys pay'n taxes and help'n the government pay fer its' reckless uncontrollable spend'n."
Then, what does ya know but Jasper Jenx speaks up. He has been quiet unitl now. But, Jasper sometimes can be a good thinker and he unloads on them boys with their negative thoughts.
He sez, "it ain't that them braggers thinks they is the biggest frog in the puddle and they shore ain't so big ya can't find a big "nough hat fer their heads. The reality is they is smart as a fox."
"Ya gotta be kid'n me" sez Bill Jones, "how in the world can ya figure that. Smart as a fox by intentionally beat'n down the price with bumper crop predictions don't make a bit of sense ta a clear think'n man!"
"Well", Jasper sez, "it works this way. Them farmers, do'n the bragg'n, has signed up fer the government program and has crop insurance.
If'n they beat that price down low enough they stands a chance of collect'n a check on their revenue insurance.
They'll then hold off until the market comes back up and collect again on better crop sales. And, the government gets their income taxes from the additional revenue as well."
"Well, I'll be jiggered", sez Sandy Bob, "does ya suppose thats the real reason them farmers is a bragg'n seemingly uncontrollably so much on their big crop, to beat down prices?"
"Sure it is" sez Jasper, "Todays farmers are a smart bunch and they is a step ahead of them speculators in Chicago."
Then, they asks me what I thought fer I had been silent and uncommitted till this time, sitt'n there eat'n my breakfast and drink'n coffee.
"Well", I sez, "it seems very complicated ta me and besides it was time fer me ta get along home ta mow the lawn fer the misses.
All this rain is a make'n fer a good crop of grass ta be cut twice a week.
Time will tell how it will turn out. But as fer me I've not got time left over ta borrow trouble from the future by speculate'n on anyones intentions, especially when it involves politics."
In the mean time I sez, "Let's hope we see each other in church this weekend."
Wherever ya is, what ever ya be a do'n BE A GOOD ONE!!
Keep on Smile'n
Catch ya Later